Policy Paper - Policy paper: Challenges to American leadership in a changing world : a potential relative decline on the march ?

« Policy paper: Multiscalar challenges to American leadership in a changing world : a potential relative decline on the march ? The question of the decline of the United States is not a new one.

It comes up when Washington faces a political crisis or suffers a major military setback.

The debate had already restarted following the defeat in Vietnam and the Iran hostage crisis (1979-1981). Ronald Reagan made American decline one of the key themes of his campaign against Jimmy Carter in 1980, with a rhetoric not unlike that of Donald Trump during the 2016 campaign and his slogan “Make America Great Again”.

Currently, American political and economic models are in crisis.

In this multipolar world, Sino-American rivalry is in full swing, while the BRICS are emerging dangerously in the face of American hegemony.

All want to reform the international order founded by the United States. This debate is not confined to the political sphere; it has also left its mark on the academic world.

The historian Paul Kennedy, in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (1987), argues that all the great powers follow a similar trajectory: rise to power, apogee, then inevitable decline, often accelerated by military and economic overstretch.

He argues that the United States will also experience this phenomenon.

In contrast, Joseph Nye, a specialist in international relations, refutes this declinist vision in Bound to Lead (1990).

Nye introduces the concept of Soft power, emphasizing that the United States' capacity for cultural, political and economic influence guarantees it a pre-eminent role in the world.

This historic debate illustrates a broader reflection on the trajectory of the great powers and their ability to remain influential in a constantly changing world. This situation is best summed up by a phrase coined by Barack Obama in his first State of the Union address in January 2010: “I do not accept second place for the United States of America”.

These words reflect America's strategic horizon and its concern about a possible decline.

This stated ambition is undermined by domestic perceptions: 68% of Americans say that the United States is less respected internationally than it was in the past.

This figure, taken from a recent survey, shows a significant rise of 10 points compared to the 58% recorded last year, underlining a sharp rise in doubts about the United States' place on the world stage.

This decline would be an earth shattering event for the United States, which has always sought to remain “the indispensable nation” out of ideological conviction and geopolitical necessity, as former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright put it. These questions have also been echoed in recent events.

This week, Donald Trump provoked international reaction by boldly threatening to regain control of the Panama Canal and reiterated his desire, expressed during his first term in office, to acquire Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory that is not available for sale.

Worryingly, he does not rule out the use of force to achieve this.

Although it is unlikely that the United States will realize these ambitions, these words illustrate a persistent vision of Trump's American foreign policy, symbolized by the slogan: “Make Greenland Great Again”, in reaction to D.

Trump Jr.'s visit to the capital Nuuk. By declaring that he wanted to protect the Panama Canal from ‘the wrong hands’, Trump refers to Sino-American rivalry, whose growing investments in Latin America are strengthening its influence.

These statements, a mixture of provocation and strategic intent, reflect the United States' growing concern about China's expansion into areas of strategic importance for trade and national security.

Control of these nerve centres underlines the growing tensions associated with the erosion of American hegemony. So, in a world undergoing profound change, marked by multi-scalar challenges, to what extent is American leadership being increasingly undermined, while at the same time binding the United States to exercise a certain special power that makes total decline impossible ? To understand the current predicament the United States of America finds itself in and whether the country is in decline or not we first need to understand the context behind its rise to global hegemony and how it has managed to stay at the top for the past century.

To start things off we will look at the very foundations of the USA’s power, its geography, which as expected has a massive influence on Washington D.C.

's success. The USA finds itself on the North American continent, having declared independence in 1776, it had a massive landmass left ripe for the taking which started with the Louisiana purchase in 1803.

For the coming century the mythical frontier saw millions of people push to the Western seaboard, a push to “Manifest Destiny”.

This did grant the American economy all of the resources it might ever need for the longest of times, in 1945 the USA accounted for a rough 90% of the world’s entire oil production.

It also allowed it to have access to both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans which proved to be crucial for the development of trade in the later centuries.

The numerous issues due to the size of the territory were addressed since the nation's founding through the construction of critical infrastructure, such as the Interstate system in 1956 through the Federal Aid Highway Act or rail transport, later on replaced by the airplane or the expansion of waterways such as the Erie canal built in 1825. The XXth century is usually referred to as the “American century”, a term coined by the journalist Henry Luce in the Times magazine in 1941.

From 1947 onwards, Washington locked itself in a Cold War against the Soviet Union.

This conflict did lead to three doctrines being developed under the Truman or Eisenhower presidencies, the first is the Truman doctrine consisting in helping financially a war torn Europe to prevent them from turning to communism ; after that was theorized the containment policy, where Washington continued promising to supply other countries with military and financial aid as long as they stood against the communists.

In the end this was all wrapped up in the domino theory, which explained that if one country falls to communism all of the neighboring ones would follow suit.

The American century also saw the construction of the United Nations and other international organizations.

These institutions enshrined American influence but also its power on a new world order under the guidance of the Bretton Woods system, and later the Washington Consensus.

This new found power would be seen mostly in 1991 with the collapse of the USSR and the beginning of a new chapter of the “Pax Americana”, where Washington D.C.

would become the “world police” under the guise of President Bush Sr. while working tightly with the United Nations, a phenomena that started in early 1991 with the Gulf War (1990-1991). The United States’ power is based on strategic pillars that have not changed for almost 8 decades now.

One of the infamous strategic pillars of the United States today is its foreign policy.

It is based on ensuring the safety of American lives and territory through robust military defense.

While also preventing any single power or coalition from dominating key global regions.

Addressing threats from hostile non-state actors such as terrorists, drug cartels, and pirates through law enforcement and military operations. Strengthening weak states to prevent threats from arising by fostering accountable governance, economic development, and stability in conflict-prone areas. And finally democracy promotion as a means to align with American values and create stable cooperation.

In 2003, President Bush Jr.

declared war on Iraq to start the process of democratic contagion under the guidance of Washington.

But there's more when it comes to the strategic pillars of the United States, like their economic strength. The United States is a global leader in technology and innovation, with companies like GAFAM, and Tesla setting industry standards.

A strong economy ensures economic resilience and global competitiveness.

Their currency serves also as the world’s primary reserve currency.

But they are also at the forefront of technological innovation, setting international benchmarks. Their diplomatic influence, particularly in terms of alliances, and their participation in international institutions, round off the picture. All of these pillars, despite their global nature, are in line with a primacy objective.

A goal that is both a memory and an aspiration for the United States.

Those pillars were built along with the history of the United States and as signs of weakness showed the power of the USA was always put back into question. As we have looked at every single foundation of the USA’s preeminence in the modern world, we also need to look as to why the American public believes the USA is in decline and how it may be harnessed by certain politicians. Since the end of the Second World War, the Americans have believed that they are in decline with numerous decades being landmarks of this line of thought, between 1950s and 1980s, and more recently the 2010s and.... »